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Not investment advice. Model values are estimates from a fixed, published method — no buy or sell recommendation.

AbbVie valuation

AbbVie Inc. · NYSE: ABBV · Pharma & biotech · Updated Sep 25, 2026

Price-implied growth
10.9%
year-1 revenue growth the price implies at our base-case margin (base case: 6.1%)
Price-implied margin
50.3%
target operating margin at our base-case growth (base case: 41.1%)
Base-case model value
$212.90
range $131.42 – $324.11 (Bear–Bull)
Price vs. base case
+24%
reference price $264.94 (IEX last trade, Sep 24, 2026)
Market value
$469B
$264.94 × 1.771 bn diluted shares
WACC
8.4%
years 1–5, then moving to 8.9% (mature company)

AbbVie's revenue grew 10.4% over the last twelve months and 1.8% a year over three years. Today's price of $264.94 implies 10.9% revenue growth in year 1, fading to 4.8% by year 10, at an operating margin of 41.1%.

Our base case continues the trend (6.1%, fading), moves the operating margin from 45.0% to 41.1% by year 5 and reinvests $0.45 of capital for each additional dollar of revenue. Discounted at 8.4%, that gives a base-case model value of $212.90 per share (bear $131.42, bull $324.11); the price is 24% above the base case.

Model value per share: bear, base, bull – and the price
Bear $131.42 – Bull $324.11Base: $212.90Base $212.90Bear $131.42Bull $324.11Price: $264.94Price $264.94

Bear: growth 5 percentage points lower, target margin 20% lower. Bull: growth 5 points higher, target margin 20% higher. Cost of capital and capital intensity as in the base case.

Model value = output of a fixed, published method; not a price target, not a recommendation. How the model works

How we got this number

1Historical base from the filingsReported fact

All figures come from the XBRL data in the company's SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), in US dollars. "TTM" = trailing twelve months. EBITA = operating income before amortisation of acquired intangibles and before expensed acquired R&D – both consequences of past acquisitions, which the model does not extrapolate.

Revenue and EBITA
RevenueEBITA
0$20B$40B$60B$80B12/20 · Revenue: $45.8B12/20 · EBITA: $18.5B12/2012/21 · Revenue: $56.2B12/21 · EBITA: $26.8B12/2112/22 · Revenue: $58.1B12/22 · EBITA: $26.5B12/2212/23 · Revenue: $54.3B12/23 · EBITA: $21.5B12/2312/24 · Revenue: $56.3B12/24 · EBITA: $19.5B12/2412/25 · Revenue: $61.2B12/25 · EBITA: $27.5B12/25TTM · Revenue: $64.4BTTM · EBITA: $28.9BTTM
Data tableFY12/2020FY12/2021FY12/2022FY12/2023FY12/2024FY12/2025TTM06/2026
Revenue $45.8B$56.2B$58.1B$54.3B$56.3B$61.2B$64.4B
Revenue growth –22.7%3.3%−6.4%3.7%8.6%10.4%
Operating income (EBIT) $11.4B$17.9B$18.1B$12.8B$9.14B$15.1B$16.9B
+ Amortisation of acquired intangibles $5.80B$7.72B$7.69B$7.95B$7.62B$7.38B$7.09B
+ Acquired R&D expensed $1.38B$1.12B$697M$778M$2.76B$5.02B$4.98B
EBITA $18.5B$26.8B$26.5B$21.5B$19.5B$27.5B$28.9B
EBITA margin 40.5%47.6%45.7%39.5%34.6%44.9%45.0%
Effective tax rate −36.0%11.1%12.1%22.0%−15.3%35.8%–
Net income $4.62B$11.5B$11.8B$4.86B$4.28B$4.23B$6.31B
Operating cash flow $17.6B$22.8B$24.9B$22.8B$18.8B$19.0B$19.5B
Capital expenditure $798M$787M$695M$777M$974M$1.21B$1.30B
Free cash flow (CFO − capex) $16.8B$22.0B$24.2B$22.1B$17.8B$17.8B$18.2B
Operating invested capital ––−$26.5B−$29.8B−$24.0B−$23.1B−$21.1B
Sales / capital –––––––
ROIC –––––––

Operating invested capital = equity + financial debt incl. leases − cash − goodwill − acquired intangibles − equity-method stakes: the capital that organic growth actually ties up. ROIC = EBITA × (1 − tax rate) / operating capital (TTM column: incl. lease interest, latest balance sheet). TTM revenue = FY ending 2025-12-31 ($61.2B) + year-to-date to 2026-06-30 ($32.0B) − prior-year period ($28.8B).

XBRL source of each line
  • revenue: us-gaap:Revenues · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • cost_of_revenue: us-gaap:CostOfGoodsAndServicesSold · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • ebit: us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • pretax: us-gaap:IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxesExtraordinaryItemsNoncontrollingInterest · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • tax: us-gaap:IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • net_income: us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • da: us-gaap:Depreciation · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • cfo: us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • capex: us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • sbc: us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • interest: us-gaap:InterestExpense · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • amort: us-gaap:AmortizationOfIntangibleAssets · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026
  • acq_iprd: us-gaap:ResearchAndDevelopmentAssetAcquiredOtherThanThroughBusinessCombinationWrittenOff · TTM · period end 2026-06-30 · 0001551152-26-000026

2Cost of equity (CAPM)Market dataAssumption

kE = rf + β × ERP = 4.79% + 1.03 × 4.14% = 9.04%
  • rf 4.79% – 10-year US Treasury yield on Sep 1, 2026, the date of the equity risk premium estimate (the two must match; today: 5.18% on Sep 24, 2026) (U.S. Treasury).
  • ERP 4.14% – implied equity risk premium of the S&P 500 by Aswath Damodaran as of Sep 1, 2026 (NYU Stern). It is backed out of current index prices and expected cash flows, not historical averages.
  • β 1.03 – bottom-up beta: the "Drugs (Pharmaceutical)" industry (228 US firms, Damodaran, January 2026) has a cash-corrected unlevered beta of 0.92. Relevered with AbbVie's leverage (debt incl. leases / market value = 15.3%):
    β = βU × (1 + (1 − t) × D/E) = 0.92 × (1 + 0.75 × 0.153) = 1.03
  • In the mature state (from year 10) we set β = 1: kE = 4.79% + 4.14% = 8.93%, the market's expected return. In years 6–10 the cost of capital moves there linearly.

3Cost of debtReported factAssumption

Interest coverage = EBIT / interest expense (TTM) = $16.9B / $2.92B = 5.8x. In Damodaran's table for large non-financial firms (January 2026) this maps to a synthetic rating of A1/A+ with a 0.70% default spread.

kD = (rf + spread) × (1 − t) = (4.79% + 0.70%) × (1 − 25%) = 4.12%

Tax rate 25%: 21% federal plus about 4% state taxes (marginal rate).

4Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)Market dataModel output

WACC = E/(D+E) × kE + D/(D+E) × kD = 86.7% × 9.04% + 13.3% × 4.12% = 8.38%

E = market value $469B (Sep 24, 2026); D = financial debt incl. lease liabilities $71.7B (book value as a proxy). This WACC applies to years 1–5; by year 10 it moves to 8.93%, the cost of capital of an average mature company (rf + ERP) – the rate at which Damodaran's implied premium discounts the market beyond year 5.

5Forecast and discounted cash flowsAssumptionModel output

DriverBase caseHow it is set
Revenue growth, year 16.1%Average of the 3-year CAGR (1.8%) and trailing-twelve-month growth (10.4%); fades linearly to 4.8% by year 10.
Operating margin45.0% → 41.1%Currently 45.0% (EBITA incl. lease interest); target in year 5: the company's own recent level (41.1%, average of three fiscal years and TTM), as it is above the industry (29.5%).
Tax rate19.1% → 25%Effective rate of the last three years (years 1–5), then moving to the marginal rate.
Sales / capital2.22Reinvestment = revenue increase / 2.22. No positive operating capital: 2× the industry value (1.11).
Terminal ROIC16.9%The lower of the company's return on capital (–) and the industry's (16.9%), but at least the cost of capital (8.9%). Terminal reinvestment rate = g / ROIC = 28.3%.
Growth after year 104.79%= risk-free rate (Damodaran's default; his implied premium is computed the same way).

Industry values: Damodaran, "Drugs (Pharmaceutical)", January 2026 (pre-tax lease-adjusted operating margin; sales / invested capital; after-tax return on capital).

Year12345678910
Revenue growth6.1%5.9%5.8%5.6%5.5%5.4%5.2%5.1%4.9%4.8%
Revenue$68.3B$72.3B$76.5B$80.8B$85.3B$89.9B$94.5B$99.3B$104B$109B
Operating margin44.2%43.5%42.7%41.9%41.1%41.1%41.1%41.1%41.1%41.1%
Operating income$30.2B$31.4B$32.6B$33.9B$35.0B$36.9B$38.8B$40.8B$42.8B$44.9B
Tax rate19.1%19.1%19.1%19.1%19.1%20.3%21.5%22.7%23.8%25.0%
NOPAT$24.4B$25.4B$26.4B$27.4B$28.3B$29.4B$30.5B$31.6B$32.6B$33.7B
− Reinvestment$1.76B$1.82B$1.89B$1.95B$2.00B$2.06B$2.11B$2.16B$2.21B$2.25B
= FCFF$22.7B$23.6B$24.5B$25.4B$26.3B$27.4B$28.4B$29.4B$30.4B$31.4B
WACC8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.5%8.6%8.7%8.8%8.9%
Discount factor0.9230.8510.7850.7250.6690.6160.5670.5220.4800.440
Present value$20.9B$20.1B$19.3B$18.4B$17.6B$16.9B$16.1B$15.4B$14.6B$13.8B
ROIC (model capital)84.2%82.6%81.0%79.4%77.8%76.6%75.4%74.1%72.9%71.7%
Terminal value = NOPAT11 × (1 − g/ROIC) / (WACCmature − g) = $35.3B × (1 − 4.79% / 16.9%) / (8.93% − 4.79%) = $611B
EV = $173B + $611B × 0.440 = $442B

The terminal value is 61% of enterprise value. Cash flows are discounted at year end with the cumulative cost of capital of each year.

6From enterprise value to equity valueReported factModel output

From enterprise value to equity value, compared with the market value
Model valueMarket value
PV of FCFF, years 1–10PV of FCFF, years 1–10: $173B$173BPV of terminal valuePV of terminal value: $269B$269BEnterprise valueEnterprise value: $442B$442BCash & securitiesCash & securities: $6.57B$6.57BDebt incl. leasesDebt incl. leases: −$71.7B−$71.7BMinorities, preferredMinorities, preferred: −$47.0M−$47.0MEquity value (model)Equity value (model): $377B$377BMarket capitalisationMarket capitalisation: $469B$469B
Enterprise value$442B
+ Cash and equivalents us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 2026-06-30$6.57B
− Long-term debt us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations · 2026-06-30−$62.5B
− Current debt us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligationsCurrent · 2026-06-30−$8.34B
− Short-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings · 2026-06-30$0.00
− Operating lease liabilities us-gaap:OperatingLeaseLiability · 2025-12-31−$883M
− Non-controlling interests us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 2026-06-30−$47.0M
= Equity value (model)$377B
÷ Diluted shares WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding · 2026-06-301.771 bn
= Base-case model value per share$212.90
Reference price (IEX last trade) · 2026-09-24 19:59 UTC$264.94

Lease liabilities count as debt; in turn, the operating margin excludes the interest component of lease payments. Share count: diluted weighted-average shares, latest quarter. Data provided for free by IEX. By accessing or using IEX Historical Data, you agree to the IEX Historical Data Terms of Use.

7Scenarios and reverse DCF: what the price impliesModel output

CaseGrowth Y1Target marginModel value per sharePrice vs. case
Bear1.1%32.9%$131.42+102%
Base6.1%41.1%$212.90+24%
Bull11.1%49.3%$324.11−18%
Implied by the price10.9%50.3%$264.94±0%

Reverse DCF: holding everything else fixed, we solve for the single assumption at which the model value equals the price – the starting growth rate (10.9%), the target margin (50.3%) or the cost of capital (7.6% instead of 8.4%).

Revenue growth: history, model path and market-implied path
Historical growthModel growth pathMarket-implied path
−10%−5%0%5%10%15%2022: 3.3%'222023: −6.4%'232024: 3.7%'242025: 8.6%'25Model growth path, year 1: 6.1%Model growth path, year 2: 5.9%Model growth path, year 3: 5.8%Model growth path, year 4: 5.6%Model growth path, year 5: 5.5%Model growth path, year 6: 5.4%Model growth path, year 7: 5.2%Model growth path, year 8: 5.1%Model growth path, year 9: 4.9%Model growth path, year 10: 4.8%Market-implied path, year 1: 10.9%Market-implied path, year 2: 10.3%Market-implied path, year 3: 9.6%Market-implied path, year 4: 8.9%Market-implied path, year 5: 8.2%Market-implied path, year 6: 7.5%Market-implied path, year 7: 6.8%Market-implied path, year 8: 6.2%Market-implied path, year 9: 5.5%Market-implied path, year 10: 4.8%Y1Y10

8Sensitivity: WACC × terminal growthModel output

Base-case model value per share for other costs of capital (rows: WACC of years 1–5; the shift applies to all years) and other growth after year 10 (columns). Outlined: base case. Reference price: $264.94.

WACC \ g2.8%3.3%3.8%4.3%4.8%
7.4%$203.17$217.58$235.13$257.08$285.53
7.9%$182.69$194.01$207.47$223.84$244.30
8.4%$165.51$174.56$185.12$197.67$212.90
8.9%$150.87$158.23$166.67$176.50$188.16
9.4%$138.26$144.32$151.17$159.02$168.14

Multiples vs. peers

Peer group "Pharma & biotech" within our coverage. Ratios use trailing-twelve-month figures and market values as of Sep 24, 2026. EV = market value + debt incl. leases + minorities − cash.

CompanyMarket valueImpliedgrowthBasegrowthPrice vs.base caseEV/EBITDAP/EP/SEBIT-marginGrowthlast FY
Eli Lilly $1.06T24.9%25.0%±0%30.2x39.6x13.3x 43.3%44.7%
Johnson & Johnson $661B15.0%6.8%+39%20.3x31.4x6.7x 26.8%6.0%
AbbVie $469B10.9%6.1%+24%30.3x74.4x7.3x 26.2%8.6%
Merck & Co. $366B6.8%3.9%+14%37.9x115.2x5.5x 11.6%1.3%
Pfizer $162B3.1%0.0%+17%16.3x37.4x2.5x 10.8%−1.6%
Amgen $221B16.2%10.4%+28%16.5x25.3x5.8x 30.0%10.0%
Peer median15.0%6.8%20.3x37.4x5.8x26.8%6.0%

Median excludes AbbVie. "n/m": negative or not meaningful.

What management says

Short, attributed excerpts from the company's own latest earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Quotes are reproduced verbatim; they are management's statements, not ours.

AbbVie Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Earnings release · Form 8-K · filed Jul 31, 2026 · Document at the SEC

“AbbVie delivered another excellent quarter, marked by outstanding execution and pipeline advancement. We also announced the proposed acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics, which strengthens our ability to deliver innovative medicines to patients, bolsters our immunology leadership and creates …”

— Robert A. Michael, chairman and chief executive officer, AbbVie

Outlook excerpt: “Updates 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Guidance Range from $13.91 - $14.11 to $13.87 - $14.07; Now Includes a $0.14 per Share Dilutive Impact Related to the Proposed Acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics, Which is Anticipated to Close in the Third Quarter of 2026; …”

Competitors and their recent moves

Notable filings by peers in the last 120 days (SEC Form 8-K items such as acquisitions, material agreements, restructurings, leadership changes and results).

  • Aug 5, 2026 · Eli Lilly
    Quarterly or annual resultsLilly reports second-quarter 2026 financial results, raise s full-year guidance, and highlights continued growth and pipeline progress · 8-K
  • Aug 4, 2026 · Johnson & Johnson
    Board or executive changeJohnson & Johnson’s Executive Vice President Jennifer Taubert to Retire; Tom Cavanaugh Appointed EVP, Worldwide Chairman Innovative Medicine Effective September · 8-K
  • Aug 4, 2026 · Merck & Co.
    Quarterly or annual resultsMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, N.J., USA Announces · 8-K
  • Aug 4, 2026 · Pfizer
    Quarterly or annual resultsPfizer Reports Second-Quarter Results And Raises Midpoint of 2026 Revenue Guidance · 8-K
  • Aug 4, 2026 · Amgen
    Quarterly or annual results · 8-K
  • Jul 31, 2026 · Amgen
    Material cybersecurity incident · 8-K
  • Jul 29, 2026 · Johnson & Johnson
    Regulation FD disclosureJohnson & Johnson Completes Acquisition of Firefly Bio, Inc. to Advance Next-Generation Oncology Innovation · 8-K
  • Jul 28, 2026 · Johnson & Johnson
    Regulation FD disclosureJohnson & Johnson Announces a Proposed Resolution of Ovarian Talc Litigation · 8-K
  • Jul 15, 2026 · Johnson & Johnson
    Quarterly or annual resultsJohnson & Johnson reports Q2 2026 results, raises 2026 outlook · 8-K
  • Jun 18, 2026 · Pfizer
    Regulation FD disclosure · 8-K

Analyst ratings

Consensus ratings and price targets from brokers are licensed data. We do not republish them. You can compare our model with the analyst consensus at these public sources:

External links; we are not responsible for their content.

Disclosure (MAR Art. 20)

Producer
NyxAI GmbH, Reiterkasernstraße 2a, 85049 Ingolstadt, Germany · responsible: Lars Heppert · Legal notice
Model completed
2026-09-25 14:19 UTC (automated daily run)
First published / last updated
2026-09-25 14:11 UTC / 2026-09-25 14:19 UTC
Prices used
Last regular-session trade on IEX on 2026-09-24 at 19:59:59 UTC: $264.94. This is not the official closing price of the primary exchange.
Financial data
SEC Form 10-Q, period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-03; balance sheet date 2026-06-30
Methodology
How the model works · steps 1–8 above
Main assumptions
rf 4.79% · ERP 4.14% · β 1.03 · WACC 8.38% → 8.93% · growth 6.1% → 4.79% · target margin 41.1% · sales/capital 2.22 · ROICterm 16.9% · scenarios: step 7, sensitivity: step 8
Nature of this information
Model-based estimate (base-case model value with a bear–bull range), computed automatically from public data with a fixed method. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold, not a price target, no investment horizon. The result depends heavily on the assumptions. Reported facts, market data, assumptions and model outputs are labelled above.
Conflicts of interest
Neither NyxAI GmbH (producer) nor its affiliated companies nor the responsible person hold positions in AbbVie Inc..NyxAI GmbH receives no payment from the companies covered for these pages, and they had no influence on content or results. Disclosures (as of Sep 25, 2026).

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