Procter & Gamble valuation
PROCTER & GAMBLE Co · NYSE: PG · Consumer staples & retail · Updated Sep 25, 2026
Procter & Gamble's revenue grew 3.3% over the last twelve months and 2.0% a year over three years. Today's price of $145.74 implies 5.1% revenue growth in year 1, fading to 4.8% by year 10, at an operating margin of 23.4%.
Our base case continues the trend (2.6%, fading), moves the operating margin from 23.1% to 23.4% by year 5 and reinvests $0.23 of capital for each additional dollar of revenue. Discounted at 7.7%, that gives a base-case model value of $130.61 per share (bear $83.54, bull $195.30); the price is 12% above the base case.
Bear: growth 5 percentage points lower, target margin 20% lower. Bull: growth 5 points higher, target margin 20% higher. Cost of capital and capital intensity as in the base case.
Model value = output of a fixed, published method; not a price target, not a recommendation. How the model works
- How we got this number
- Multiples vs. peers
- What management says
- Competitors and their recent moves
- Analyst ratings
- Disclosure (MAR Art. 20)
How we got this number
1Historical base from the filings
All figures come from the XBRL data in the company's SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), in US dollars. "TTM" = trailing twelve months. EBITA = operating income before amortisation of acquired intangibles and before expensed acquired R&D – both consequences of past acquisitions, which the model does not extrapolate.
| Data table | FY06/2021 | FY06/2022 | FY06/2023 | FY06/2024 | FY06/2025 | FY06/2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $76.1B | $80.2B | $82.0B | $84.0B | $84.3B | $87.0B |
| Revenue growth | – | 5.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 3.3% |
| Operating income (EBIT) | $18.0B | $17.8B | $18.1B | $18.5B | $20.5B | $19.7B |
| + Amortisation of acquired intangibles | $318M | $312M | $327M | $338M | $320M | $308M |
| EBITA | $18.3B | $18.1B | $18.5B | $18.9B | $20.8B | $20.1B |
| EBITA margin | 24.0% | 22.6% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 24.6% | 23.0% |
| Effective tax rate | – | 17.8% | 19.7% | 20.2% | 20.3% | 20.8% |
| Net income | $14.3B | $14.7B | $14.7B | $14.9B | $16.0B | $16.0B |
| Operating cash flow | $18.4B | $16.7B | $16.8B | $19.8B | $17.8B | $19.6B |
| Capital expenditure | $2.79B | $3.16B | $3.06B | $3.32B | $3.77B | $4.41B |
| Free cash flow (CFO − capex) | $15.6B | $13.6B | $13.8B | $16.5B | $14.0B | $15.1B |
| Operating invested capital | – | – | $9.76B | $12.1B | $14.6B | $16.7B |
| Sales / capital | – | – | 8.40 | 6.96 | 5.77 | 5.22 |
| ROIC | – | – | 151.9% | 124.9% | 113.3% | 95.3% |
Operating invested capital = equity + financial debt incl. leases − cash − goodwill − acquired intangibles − equity-method stakes: the capital that organic growth actually ties up. ROIC = EBITA × (1 − tax rate) / operating capital (TTM column: incl. lease interest, latest balance sheet).
XBRL source of each line
- revenue: us-gaap:Revenues · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- cost_of_revenue: us-gaap:CostOfGoodsAndServicesSold · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- ebit: us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- pretax: us-gaap:IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxesExtraordinaryItemsNoncontrollingInterest · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- tax: us-gaap:IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- net_income: us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- da: us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- cfo: us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- capex: us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- sbc: us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- interest: us-gaap:InterestExpenseNonoperating · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
- amort: us-gaap:AmortizationOfIntangibleAssets · 10-K · period end 2026-06-30 · 0000080424-26-000103
2Cost of equity (CAPM)
- rf 4.79% – 10-year US Treasury yield on Sep 1, 2026, the date of the equity risk premium estimate (the two must match; today: 5.18% on Sep 24, 2026) (U.S. Treasury).
- ERP 4.14% – implied equity risk premium of the S&P 500 by Aswath Damodaran as of Sep 1, 2026 (NYU Stern). It is backed out of current index prices and expected cash flows, not historical averages.
- β 0.80 – bottom-up beta: the "Household Products" industry (110 US firms, Damodaran, January 2026) has a cash-corrected unlevered beta of 0.74. Relevered with Procter & Gamble's leverage (debt incl. leases / market value = 9.9%): β = βU × (1 + (1 − t) × D/E) = 0.74 × (1 + 0.75 × 0.099) = 0.80
- In the mature state (from year 10) we set β = 1: kE = 4.79% + 4.14% = 8.93%, the market's expected return. In years 6–10 the cost of capital moves there linearly.
3Cost of debt
Interest coverage = EBIT / interest expense (TTM) = $19.7B / $877M = 22.5x. In Damodaran's table for large non-financial firms (January 2026) this maps to a synthetic rating of Aaa/AAA with a 0.40% default spread.
Tax rate 25%: 21% federal plus about 4% state taxes (marginal rate).
4Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
E = market value $352B (Sep 24, 2026); D = financial debt incl. lease liabilities $35.0B (book value as a proxy). This WACC applies to years 1–5; by year 10 it moves to 8.93%, the cost of capital of an average mature company (rf + ERP) – the rate at which Damodaran's implied premium discounts the market beyond year 5.
5Forecast and discounted cash flows
| Driver | Base case | How it is set |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, year 1 | 2.6% | Average of the 3-year CAGR (2.0%) and trailing-twelve-month growth (3.3%); fades linearly to 4.8% by year 10. |
| Operating margin | 23.1% → 23.4% | Currently 23.1% (EBITA incl. lease interest); target in year 5: the company's own recent level (23.4%, average of three fiscal years and TTM), as it is above the industry (18.8%). |
| Tax rate | 20.4% → 25% | Effective rate of the last three years (years 1–5), then moving to the marginal rate. |
| Sales / capital | 4.42 | Reinvestment = revenue increase / 4.42. Company average 5.98, bounded to 0.5–2× the industry value (2.21). |
| Terminal ROIC | 34.4% | The lower of the company's return on capital (95.9%) and the industry's (34.4%), but at least the cost of capital (8.9%). Terminal reinvestment rate = g / ROIC = 13.9%. |
| Growth after year 10 | 4.79% | = risk-free rate (Damodaran's default; his implied premium is computed the same way). |
Industry values: Damodaran, "Household Products", January 2026 (pre-tax lease-adjusted operating margin; sales / invested capital; after-tax return on capital).
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| Revenue | $89.3B | $91.9B | $94.7B | $97.9B | $101B | $105B | $110B | $114B | $120B | $125B |
| Operating margin | 23.1% | 23.2% | 23.3% | 23.3% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| Operating income | $20.7B | $21.3B | $22.0B | $22.8B | $23.7B | $24.6B | $25.6B | $26.7B | $27.9B | $29.3B |
| Tax rate | 20.4% | 20.4% | 20.4% | 20.4% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 22.3% | 23.2% | 24.1% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $16.5B | $17.0B | $17.5B | $18.2B | $18.8B | $19.3B | $19.9B | $20.5B | $21.2B | $21.9B |
| − Reinvestment | $518M | $580M | $647M | $718M | $795M | $879M | $970M | $1.07B | $1.18B | $1.30B |
| = FCFF | $15.9B | $16.4B | $16.9B | $17.4B | $18.1B | $18.5B | $18.9B | $19.4B | $20.0B | $20.6B |
| WACC | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% |
| Discount factor | 0.928 | 0.862 | 0.800 | 0.743 | 0.690 | 0.639 | 0.591 | 0.545 | 0.501 | 0.460 |
| Present value | $14.8B | $14.1B | $13.5B | $13.0B | $12.5B | $11.8B | $11.2B | $10.6B | $10.0B | $9.50B |
| ROIC (model capital) | 83.5% | 83.9% | 84.3% | 84.7% | 85.1% | 84.3% | 83.5% | 82.7% | 81.9% | 81.1% |
The terminal value is 65% of enterprise value. Cash flows are discounted at year end with the cumulative cost of capital of each year.
6From enterprise value to equity value
| Enterprise value | $341B |
| + Cash and equivalents us-gaap:CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents · 2026-06-30 | $9.94B |
| − Long-term debt us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 2026-06-30 | −$22.8B |
| − Current debt us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 2026-06-30 | −$6.46B |
| − Commercial paper us-gaap:CommercialPaper · 2026-06-30 | −$4.84B |
| − Operating lease liabilities us-gaap:OperatingLeaseLiability · 2026-06-30 | −$887M |
| − Non-controlling interests us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 2026-06-30 | −$230M |
| = Equity value (model) | $316B |
| ÷ Diluted shares WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding · 2026-03-31 | 2.417 bn |
| = Base-case model value per share | $130.61 |
| Reference price (IEX last trade) · 2026-09-24 19:59 UTC | $145.74 |
Lease liabilities count as debt; in turn, the operating margin excludes the interest component of lease payments. Share count: diluted weighted-average shares, latest quarter. Data provided for free by IEX. By accessing or using IEX Historical Data, you agree to the IEX Historical Data Terms of Use.
7Scenarios and reverse DCF: what the price implies
| Case | Growth Y1 | Target margin | Model value per share | Price vs. case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | −2.4% | 18.7% | $83.54 | +74% |
| Base | 2.6% | 23.4% | $130.61 | +12% |
| Bull | 7.6% | 28.0% | $195.30 | −25% |
| Implied by the price | 5.1% | 26.0% | $145.74 | ±0% |
Reverse DCF: holding everything else fixed, we solve for the single assumption at which the model value equals the price – the starting growth rate (5.1%), the target margin (26.0%) or the cost of capital (7.3% instead of 7.7%).
8Sensitivity: WACC × terminal growth
Base-case model value per share for other costs of capital (rows: WACC of years 1–5; the shift applies to all years) and other growth after year 10 (columns). Outlined: base case. Reference price: $145.74.
| WACC \ g | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $117.47 | $127.10 | $138.98 | $154.03 | $173.75 |
| 7.2% | $106.30 | $114.00 | $123.29 | $134.74 | $149.24 |
| 7.7% | $96.95 | $103.21 | $110.63 | $119.58 | $130.61 |
| 8.2% | $88.99 | $94.16 | $100.20 | $107.35 | $115.98 |
| 8.7% | $82.15 | $86.47 | $91.46 | $97.27 | $104.17 |
Multiples vs. peers
Peer group "Consumer staples & retail" within our coverage. Ratios use trailing-twelve-month figures and market values as of Sep 24, 2026. EV = market value + debt incl. leases + minorities − cash.
| Company | Market value | Impliedgrowth | Basegrowth | Price vs.base case | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | EBIT-margin | Growthlast FY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart | $858B | 19.8% | 5.7% | +72% | 19.6x | 38.9x | 1.2x | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| Costco | $398B | 22.6% | 7.9% | +66% | 28.1x | 45.1x | 1.4x | 3.8% | 8.2% |
| Procter & Gamble | $352B | 5.1% | 2.6% | +12% | 16.5x | 21.9x | 4.0x | 22.7% | 3.3% |
| Coca-Cola | $380B | 17.2% | 5.1% | +62% | 24.8x | 26.5x | 7.6x | 29.6% | 1.9% |
| PepsiCo | $175B | −1.9% | 4.2% | −25% | 12.7x | 16.8x | 1.8x | 14.8% | 2.3% |
| Philip Morris International | $299B | 5.1% | 8.7% | −16% | 19.0x | 27.5x | 7.0x | 37.7% | 7.3% |
| Peer median | 17.2% | 5.7% | 19.6x | 27.5x | 1.8x | 14.8% | 4.7% |
Median excludes Procter & Gamble. "n/m": negative or not meaningful.
What management says
Short, attributed excerpts from the company's own latest earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Quotes are reproduced verbatim; they are management's statements, not ours.
Fiscal Year 2026 Results
Earnings release · Form 8-K · filed Jul 29, 2026 · Document at the SEC
“Fiscal 2026 was a year of foundation building while continuing to grow sales and profit and return high levels of cash to shareowners despite a very challenging geopolitical and economic environment”
Outlook excerpt: “In June 2025, the Company announced a portfolio and productivity plan to streamline its portfolio and organization to improve its cost structure and invest in growth. The Company expects to incur non-core restructuring costs of approximately $1 to $1.6 billion before-tax over a two-year period. …”
- Annual report (10-K) · period 2026-06-30 · filed Aug 4, 2026 – includes management's discussion and analysis (MD&A)
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) · period 2026-03-31 · filed Apr 24, 2026
- All filings by PROCTER & GAMBLE Co (SEC EDGAR)
Competitors and their recent moves
Notable filings by peers in the last 120 days (SEC Form 8-K items such as acquisitions, material agreements, restructurings, leadership changes and results).
- Sep 24, 2026 · Costco
Quarterly or annual results · 8-K - Sep 18, 2026 · Philip Morris International
Regulation FD disclosure · 8-K - Sep 17, 2026 · PepsiCo
Board or executive change · 8-K - Sep 8, 2026 · Philip Morris International
Regulation FD disclosure · 8-K - Sep 8, 2026 · Philip Morris International
Regulation FD disclosureRaises 2026 Full-Year Diluted EPS Forecast for Currency Only · 8-K - Aug 24, 2026 · Philip Morris International
Regulation FD disclosurePhilip Morris International Announces Contract Manufacturing Collaboration with Altria · 8-K - Aug 20, 2026 · Walmart
Quarterly or annual results · 8-K - Jul 28, 2026 · Coca-Cola
Quarterly or annual resultsCoca-Cola Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year Guidance · 8-K - Jul 22, 2026 · Philip Morris International
Quarterly or annual resultsPhilip Morris International Reports 2026 Second-Quarter & First Six-Months Results · 8-K - Jul 16, 2026 · Coca-Cola
Other material event · 8-K
Analyst ratings
Consensus ratings and price targets from brokers are licensed data. We do not republish them. You can compare our model with the analyst consensus at these public sources:
External links; we are not responsible for their content.
Disclosure (MAR Art. 20)
- Producer
- NyxAI GmbH, Reiterkasernstraße 2a, 85049 Ingolstadt, Germany · responsible: Lars Heppert · Legal notice
- Model completed
- 2026-09-25 14:19 UTC (automated daily run)
- First published / last updated
- 2026-09-25 14:11 UTC / 2026-09-25 14:19 UTC
- Prices used
- Last regular-session trade on IEX on 2026-09-24 at 19:59:59 UTC: $145.74. This is not the official closing price of the primary exchange.
- Financial data
- SEC Form 10-K, period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04; balance sheet date 2026-06-30
- Methodology
- How the model works · steps 1–8 above
- Main assumptions
- rf 4.79% · ERP 4.14% · β 0.80 · WACC 7.70% → 8.93% · growth 2.6% → 4.79% · target margin 23.4% · sales/capital 4.42 · ROICterm 34.4% · scenarios: step 7, sensitivity: step 8
- Nature of this information
- Model-based estimate (base-case model value with a bear–bull range), computed automatically from public data with a fixed method. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold, not a price target, no investment horizon. The result depends heavily on the assumptions. Reported facts, market data, assumptions and model outputs are labelled above.
- Conflicts of interest
- Neither NyxAI GmbH (producer) nor its affiliated companies nor the responsible person hold positions in PROCTER & GAMBLE Co.NyxAI GmbH receives no payment from the companies covered for these pages, and they had no influence on content or results. Disclosures (as of Sep 25, 2026).
Sources for this page
- Financial statements: SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts (CIK 80424), 10-K 2026-08-04
- Share price: IEX Historical Data (TOPS), 2026-09-24. Data provided for free by IEX. By accessing or using IEX Historical Data, you agree to the IEX Historical Data Terms of Use. IEX Historical Data Terms of Use
- Risk-free rate: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (10 Yr), 2026-09-01
- Equity risk premium: Aswath Damodaran, implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500 (trailing 12-month cash yield, adjusted payout), 2026-09-01
- Default spreads: Aswath Damodaran, Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread (January 2026)
- Industry betas: Aswath Damodaran, Betas by Sector (US) (January 2026)
- Industry values: Aswath Damodaran, Operating margins, Sales/Invested capital, Return on capital (January 2026)