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Not investment advice. Model values are estimates from a fixed, published method — no buy or sell recommendation.

Walmart valuation

Walmart Inc. · Nasdaq: WMT · Consumer staples & retail · Updated Sep 25, 2026

Price-implied growth
19.8%
year-1 revenue growth the price implies at our base-case margin (base case: 5.7%)
Price-implied margin
8.9%
target operating margin at our base-case growth (base case: 5.5%)
Base-case model value
$62.69
range $40.15 – $93.93 (Bear–Bull)
Price vs. base case
+72%
reference price $107.55 (IEX last trade, Sep 24, 2026)
Market value
$858B
$107.55 × 7.978 bn diluted shares
WACC
7.9%
years 1–5, then moving to 8.9% (mature company)
Why the gap? Mainly the discount rate: the price is consistent with a cost of capital of about 6.3%; our CAPM-based WACC is 7.9%. Other readings of the price: growth 19.8% · margin 8.9% · WACC 6.3%.

Walmart's revenue grew 6.1% over the last twelve months and 5.2% a year over three years. Today's price of $107.55 implies 19.8% revenue growth in year 1, fading to 4.8% by year 10, at an operating margin of 5.5%.

Our base case continues the trend (5.7%, fading), moves the operating margin from 4.5% to 5.5% by year 5 and reinvests $0.17 of capital for each additional dollar of revenue. Discounted at 7.9%, that gives a base-case model value of $62.69 per share (bear $40.15, bull $93.93); the price is 72% above the base case.

Model value per share: bear, base, bull – and the price
Bear $40.15 – Bull $93.93Base: $62.69Base $62.69Bear $40.15Bull $93.93Price: $107.55Price $107.55

Bear: growth 5 percentage points lower, target margin 20% lower. Bull: growth 5 points higher, target margin 20% higher. Cost of capital and capital intensity as in the base case.

Model value = output of a fixed, published method; not a price target, not a recommendation. How the model works

How we got this number

1Historical base from the filingsReported fact

All figures come from the XBRL data in the company's SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), in US dollars. "TTM" = trailing twelve months. EBITA = operating income before amortisation of acquired intangibles and before expensed acquired R&D – both consequences of past acquisitions, which the model does not extrapolate.

Revenue and EBITA
RevenueEBITA
0$200B$400B$600B$800B01/21 · Revenue: $555B01/21 · EBITA: $22.5B01/2101/22 · Revenue: $568B01/22 · EBITA: $25.9B01/2201/23 · Revenue: $606B01/23 · EBITA: $20.4B01/2301/24 · Revenue: $643B01/24 · EBITA: $27.0B01/2401/25 · Revenue: $675B01/25 · EBITA: $29.3B01/2501/26 · Revenue: $706B01/26 · EBITA: $29.8B01/26TTM · Revenue: $728BTTM · EBITA: $32.3BTTM
Data tableFY01/2021FY01/2022FY01/2023FY01/2024FY01/2025FY01/2026TTM07/2026
Revenue $555B$568B$606B$643B$675B$706B$728B
Revenue growth –2.3%6.7%6.1%5.0%4.7%6.1%
Operating income (EBIT) $22.5B$25.9B$20.4B$27.0B$29.3B$29.8B$32.3B
EBITA $22.5B$25.9B$20.4B$27.0B$29.3B$29.8B$32.3B
EBITA margin 4.1%4.6%3.4%4.2%4.4%4.2%4.4%
Effective tax rate 33.3%25.4%33.6%25.5%23.4%24.4%–
Net income $13.5B$13.7B$11.7B$15.5B$19.4B$21.9B$22.1B
Operating cash flow $36.1B$24.2B$28.8B$35.7B$36.4B$41.6B$42.9B
Capital expenditure $10.3B$13.1B$16.9B$20.6B$23.8B$26.6B$29.4B
Free cash flow (CFO − capex) $25.8B$11.1B$12.0B$15.1B$12.7B$14.9B$13.5B
Operating invested capital ––$98.8B$107B$113B$127B$132B
Sales / capital ––6.135.995.955.555.51
ROIC ––13.7%18.8%19.8%17.7%19.0%

Operating invested capital = equity + financial debt incl. leases − cash − goodwill − acquired intangibles − equity-method stakes: the capital that organic growth actually ties up. ROIC = EBITA × (1 − tax rate) / operating capital (TTM column: incl. lease interest, latest balance sheet). TTM revenue = FY ending 2026-01-31 ($706B) + year-to-date to 2026-07-31 ($362B) − prior-year period ($340B).

XBRL source of each line
  • revenue: us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • cost_of_revenue: us-gaap:CostOfRevenue · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • ebit: us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • pretax: us-gaap:IncomeLossFromContinuingOperationsBeforeIncomeTaxesExtraordinaryItemsNoncontrollingInterest · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • tax: us-gaap:IncomeTaxExpenseBenefit · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • net_income: us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • da: us-gaap:DepreciationAmortizationAndAccretionNet · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • cfo: us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • capex: us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154
  • sbc: us-gaap:AllocatedShareBasedCompensationExpense · 10-K · period end 2026-01-31 · 0000104169-26-000055
  • interest: us-gaap:InterestExpenseDebt · TTM · period end 2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154

2Cost of equity (CAPM)Market dataAssumption

kE = rf + β × ERP = 4.79% + 0.83 × 4.14% = 8.23%
  • rf 4.79% – 10-year US Treasury yield on Sep 1, 2026, the date of the equity risk premium estimate (the two must match; today: 5.18% on Sep 24, 2026) (U.S. Treasury).
  • ERP 4.14% – implied equity risk premium of the S&P 500 by Aswath Damodaran as of Sep 1, 2026 (NYU Stern). It is backed out of current index prices and expected cash flows, not historical averages.
  • β 0.83 – bottom-up beta: the "Retail (General)" industry (23 US firms, Damodaran, January 2026) has a cash-corrected unlevered beta of 0.78. Relevered with Walmart's leverage (debt incl. leases / market value = 8.6%):
    β = βU × (1 + (1 − t) × D/E) = 0.78 × (1 + 0.75 × 0.086) = 0.83
  • In the mature state (from year 10) we set β = 1: kE = 4.79% + 4.14% = 8.93%, the market's expected return. In years 6–10 the cost of capital moves there linearly.

3Cost of debtReported factAssumption

Interest coverage = EBIT / interest expense (TTM) = $32.3B / $1.86B = 17.4x. In Damodaran's table for large non-financial firms (January 2026) this maps to a synthetic rating of Aaa/AAA with a 0.40% default spread.

kD = (rf + spread) × (1 − t) = (4.79% + 0.40%) × (1 − 25%) = 3.89%

Tax rate 25%: 21% federal plus about 4% state taxes (marginal rate).

4Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)Market dataModel output

WACC = E/(D+E) × kE + D/(D+E) × kD = 92.1% × 8.23% + 7.9% × 3.89% = 7.88%

E = market value $858B (Sep 24, 2026); D = financial debt incl. lease liabilities $73.8B (book value as a proxy). This WACC applies to years 1–5; by year 10 it moves to 8.93%, the cost of capital of an average mature company (rf + ERP) – the rate at which Damodaran's implied premium discounts the market beyond year 5.

5Forecast and discounted cash flowsAssumptionModel output

DriverBase caseHow it is set
Revenue growth, year 15.7%Average of the 3-year CAGR (5.2%) and trailing-twelve-month growth (6.1%); fades linearly to 4.8% by year 10.
Operating margin4.5% → 5.5%Currently 4.5% (EBITA incl. lease interest); target in year 5: halfway from its own level (4.4%) to the industry margin (6.5%).
Tax rate24.4% → 25%Effective rate of the last three years (years 1–5), then moving to the marginal rate.
Sales / capital5.83Reinvestment = revenue increase / 5.83. Company's 3-year average (5.83).
Terminal ROIC13.6%The lower of the company's return on capital (19.0%) and the industry's (13.6%), but at least the cost of capital (8.9%). Terminal reinvestment rate = g / ROIC = 35.2%.
Growth after year 104.79%= risk-free rate (Damodaran's default; his implied premium is computed the same way).

Industry values: Damodaran, "Retail (General)", January 2026 (pre-tax lease-adjusted operating margin; sales / invested capital; after-tax return on capital).

Year12345678910
Revenue growth5.7%5.6%5.5%5.4%5.3%5.2%5.1%5.0%4.9%4.8%
Revenue$770B$813B$857B$903B$951B$1.00T$1.05T$1.10T$1.16T$1.21T
Operating margin4.7%4.9%5.1%5.3%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%
Operating income$36.4B$39.9B$43.7B$47.7B$51.9B$54.6B$57.4B$60.3B$63.2B$66.2B
Tax rate24.4%24.4%24.4%24.4%24.4%24.5%24.6%24.8%24.9%25.0%
NOPAT$27.5B$30.2B$33.0B$36.1B$39.3B$41.2B$43.3B$45.3B$47.5B$49.7B
− Reinvestment$7.09B$7.36B$7.63B$7.91B$8.18B$8.45B$8.72B$8.99B$9.25B$9.51B
= FCFF$20.5B$22.8B$25.4B$28.1B$31.1B$32.8B$34.5B$36.4B$38.2B$40.2B
WACC7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%8.1%8.3%8.5%8.7%8.9%
Discount factor0.9270.8590.7960.7380.6840.6330.5840.5390.4950.455
Present value$19.0B$19.6B$20.2B$20.8B$21.3B$20.8B$20.2B$19.6B$18.9B$18.3B
ROIC (model capital)22.1%22.9%23.7%24.5%25.4%25.3%25.2%25.2%25.1%25.0%
Terminal value = NOPAT11 × (1 − g/ROIC) / (WACCmature − g) = $52.1B × (1 − 4.79% / 13.6%) / (8.93% − 4.79%) = $814B
EV = $199B + $814B × 0.455 = $569B

The terminal value is 65% of enterprise value. Cash flows are discounted at year end with the cumulative cost of capital of each year.

6From enterprise value to equity valueReported factModel output

From enterprise value to equity value, compared with the market value
Model valueMarket value
PV of FCFF, years 1–10PV of FCFF, years 1–10: $199B$199BPV of terminal valuePV of terminal value: $370B$370BEnterprise valueEnterprise value: $569B$569BCash & securitiesCash & securities: $11.5B$11.5BDebt incl. leasesDebt incl. leases: −$73.8B−$73.8BMinorities, preferredMinorities, preferred: −$6.56B−$6.56BEquity value (model)Equity value (model): $500B$500BMarket capitalisationMarket capitalisation: $858B$858B
Enterprise value$569B
+ Cash and equivalents us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 2026-07-31$11.5B
− Long-term debt us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 2026-07-31−$36.5B
− Current debt us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 2026-07-31−$3.47B
− Short-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings · 2026-07-31−$10.5B
− Finance lease liabilities us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiabilityNoncurrent+FinanceLeaseLiabilityCurrent · 2026-07-31−$6.83B
− Operating lease liabilities us-gaap:OperatingLeaseLiabilityNoncurrent+OperatingLeaseLiabilityCurrent · 2026-07-31−$16.5B
− Non-controlling interests us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 2026-07-31−$6.27B
− Redeemable non-controlling interests us-gaap:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestEquityCarryingAmount · 2026-07-31−$293M
= Equity value (model)$500B
÷ Diluted shares WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding · 2026-07-317.978 bn
= Base-case model value per share$62.69
Reference price (IEX last trade) · 2026-09-24 19:59 UTC$107.55

Lease liabilities count as debt; in turn, the operating margin excludes the interest component of lease payments. Share count: diluted weighted-average shares, latest quarter. Data provided for free by IEX. By accessing or using IEX Historical Data, you agree to the IEX Historical Data Terms of Use.

7Scenarios and reverse DCF: what the price impliesModel output

CaseGrowth Y1Target marginModel value per sharePrice vs. case
Bear0.7%4.4%$40.15+168%
Base5.7%5.5%$62.69+72%
Bull10.7%6.6%$93.93+14%
Implied by the price19.8%8.9%$107.55±0%

Reverse DCF: holding everything else fixed, we solve for the single assumption at which the model value equals the price – the starting growth rate (19.8%), the target margin (8.9%) or the cost of capital (6.3% instead of 7.9%).

Revenue growth: history, model path and market-implied path
Historical growthModel growth pathMarket-implied path
0%5%10%15%20%2023: 6.7%'232024: 6.1%'242025: 5.0%'252026: 4.7%'26Model growth path, year 1: 5.7%Model growth path, year 2: 5.6%Model growth path, year 3: 5.5%Model growth path, year 4: 5.4%Model growth path, year 5: 5.3%Model growth path, year 6: 5.2%Model growth path, year 7: 5.1%Model growth path, year 8: 5.0%Model growth path, year 9: 4.9%Model growth path, year 10: 4.8%Market-implied path, year 1: 19.8%Market-implied path, year 2: 18.1%Market-implied path, year 3: 16.5%Market-implied path, year 4: 14.8%Market-implied path, year 5: 13.1%Market-implied path, year 6: 11.5%Market-implied path, year 7: 9.8%Market-implied path, year 8: 8.1%Market-implied path, year 9: 6.5%Market-implied path, year 10: 4.8%Y1Y10

8Sensitivity: WACC × terminal growthModel output

Base-case model value per share for other costs of capital (rows: WACC of years 1–5; the shift applies to all years) and other growth after year 10 (columns). Outlined: base case. Reference price: $107.55.

WACC \ g2.8%3.3%3.8%4.3%4.8%
6.9%$62.77$66.62$71.30$77.15$84.73
7.4%$56.26$59.20$62.69$66.92$72.20
7.9%$50.81$53.09$55.74$58.88$62.69
8.4%$46.18$47.97$50.02$52.40$55.20
8.9%$42.20$43.62$45.23$47.05$49.16

Multiples vs. peers

Peer group "Consumer staples & retail" within our coverage. Ratios use trailing-twelve-month figures and market values as of Sep 24, 2026. EV = market value + debt incl. leases + minorities − cash.

CompanyMarket valueImpliedgrowthBasegrowthPrice vs.base caseEV/EBITDAP/EP/SEBIT-marginGrowthlast FY
Walmart $858B19.8%5.7%+72%19.6x38.9x1.2x 4.4%4.7%
Costco $398B22.6%7.9%+66%28.1x45.1x1.4x 3.8%8.2%
Procter & Gamble $352B5.1%2.6%+12%16.5x21.9x4.0x 22.7%3.3%
Coca-Cola $380B17.2%5.1%+62%24.8x26.5x7.6x 29.6%1.9%
PepsiCo $175B−1.9%4.2%−25%12.7x16.8x1.8x 14.8%2.3%
Philip Morris International $299B5.1%8.7%−16%19.0x27.5x7.0x 37.7%7.3%
Peer median5.1%5.1%19.0x26.5x4.0x22.7%3.3%

Median excludes Walmart. "n/m": negative or not meaningful.

What management says

Short, attributed excerpts from the company's own latest earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Quotes are reproduced verbatim; they are management's statements, not ours.

Earnings release
Earnings release · Form 8-K · filed Aug 20, 2026 · Document at the SEC

“Our business model is only getting stronger and more durable, and we’re pleased to raise our guidance for the year. For Q3 sales guidance, we expect a headwind of over 100bps to growth related to a timing shift of Flipkart’s Big Billion Days between Q3 and Q4. …”

— John David Rainey, Walmart Inc. executive vice president and chief financial officer

Outlook excerpt: “BENTONVILLE, Ark., August 20, 2026 – Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT) announces second-quarter results with strong growth in revenue, including eCommerce, which grew 23% globally with strength across segments. Walmart U.S. …”

Competitors and their recent moves

Notable filings by peers in the last 120 days (SEC Form 8-K items such as acquisitions, material agreements, restructurings, leadership changes and results).

  • Sep 24, 2026 · Costco
    Quarterly or annual results · 8-K
  • Sep 18, 2026 · Philip Morris International
    Regulation FD disclosure · 8-K
  • Sep 17, 2026 · PepsiCo
    Board or executive change · 8-K
  • Sep 8, 2026 · Philip Morris International
    Regulation FD disclosure · 8-K
  • Sep 8, 2026 · Philip Morris International
    Regulation FD disclosureRaises 2026 Full-Year Diluted EPS Forecast for Currency Only · 8-K
  • Aug 24, 2026 · Philip Morris International
    Regulation FD disclosurePhilip Morris International Announces Contract Manufacturing Collaboration with Altria · 8-K
  • Jul 29, 2026 · Procter & Gamble
    Regulation FD disclosureFY & Q4 FY 2026 Results July 29, 2026 EARNINGS RELEASE · 8-K
  • Jul 29, 2026 · Procter & Gamble
    Board or executive changeRegulation FD disclosureExecutive Chairman Jon Moeller to Retire · 8-K
  • Jul 29, 2026 · Procter & Gamble
    Quarterly or annual resultsFiscal Year 2026 Results · 8-K
  • Jul 28, 2026 · Coca-Cola
    Quarterly or annual resultsCoca-Cola Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year Guidance · 8-K

Analyst ratings

Consensus ratings and price targets from brokers are licensed data. We do not republish them. You can compare our model with the analyst consensus at these public sources:

External links; we are not responsible for their content.

Disclosure (MAR Art. 20)

Producer
NyxAI GmbH, Reiterkasernstraße 2a, 85049 Ingolstadt, Germany · responsible: Lars Heppert · Legal notice
Model completed
2026-09-25 14:19 UTC (automated daily run)
First published / last updated
2026-09-25 14:11 UTC / 2026-09-25 14:19 UTC
Prices used
Last regular-session trade on IEX on 2026-09-24 at 19:59:59 UTC: $107.55. This is not the official closing price of the primary exchange.
Financial data
SEC Form 10-Q, period 2026-07-31, filed 2026-08-28; balance sheet date 2026-07-31
Methodology
How the model works · steps 1–8 above
Main assumptions
rf 4.79% · ERP 4.14% · β 0.83 · WACC 7.88% → 8.93% · growth 5.7% → 4.79% · target margin 5.5% · sales/capital 5.83 · ROICterm 13.6% · scenarios: step 7, sensitivity: step 8
Nature of this information
Model-based estimate (base-case model value with a bear–bull range), computed automatically from public data with a fixed method. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold, not a price target, no investment horizon. The result depends heavily on the assumptions. Reported facts, market data, assumptions and model outputs are labelled above.
Conflicts of interest
Neither NyxAI GmbH (producer) nor its affiliated companies nor the responsible person hold positions in Walmart Inc..NyxAI GmbH receives no payment from the companies covered for these pages, and they had no influence on content or results. Disclosures (as of Sep 25, 2026).

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